A Northwoods Almanac for 10/26/18

A Northwoods Almanac for Oct. 26 – Nov. 8, 2018  

Hawk Ridge

            A host of scheduling conflicts made it impossible for Mary and I to visit Duluth’s Hawk Ridge this fall, and we missed a good year! Their fall migration count as of 10/22 was 211,088 individual birds from 199 species. A breakdown of some of those numbers may be surprising: 17% (34,917) of the total were robins, 13% (26,455) were blue jays, 10% (20,503) were various species of warblers, and 5% (10,311) were cedar waxwings.

Within the raptors, broad-winged hawks, as always, have led the way with 8% (17,762) of the total. Sharp-shinned hawks are currently a distant second at 5% (11,122) of the total. 

kettle of hawks

            Some other notable numbers included 10,083 Canada geese, 10,051 purple finches, 8,918 common nighthawks, and 3,550 bald eagles. Another 19,276 songbirds were unidentifiable.  

            I’m always astonished at the accuracy of their species counts – this is truly difficult to do!  But the counters are among the best in the country and have decades of experience conducting other counts all around the U.S. I’ve stood near them while they’re counting, and I can attest to their extraordinary skill.

I’ve touted the count at Hawk Ridge for many years, because it’s one of the two or three highest on the continent north of Mexico. From 1991 to 2013, the average yearly number of raptors observed at Hawk Ridge has been 76,000, comprised of 16 regular hawk species.

            The large raptors like bald eagles, red-tailed hawks, and northern goshawks are still coming through, so if you have the inclination, consider taking the drive – see www.hawkridge.orgfor directions and advice on when to visit.

Sightings – Tamaracks, Dark-eyed Juncos, Snow Buntings

            Tamaracks have peaked in color. Aldo Leopold wrote in his Sand County Almanac, “There are two times to hunt [ruffed grouse] in Adams County: ordinary times, and when the tamaracks are smoky gold. This is written for those luckless ones who have never stood, gun empty and mouth agape, to watch the golden needles come sifting down, while the feathery rocket that knocked them off sails unscathed into the jackpines.” 

            One doesn’t need to hunt grouse in the Northwoods to experience those golden needles sifting down during a late October wind. Tamarack’s gold marks the last major light show of autumn. Nearly all of our deciduous trees have now cut their leaves loose, except for the oaks and ironwoods who just can’t seem to let go of their season’s work. 

tamaracks along DuPage Lake

            Dark-eyed juncos are omnipresent now in the north country as they work their way south. They are easily distinguished by their white tail feathers that scissor open and closed when they take flight. They’re super-common – the most recent estimate of their North American population is 630 million! 

East of Mississippi River, female juncos tend to migrate farther south than males, but all adults migrate farther than hatching-year birds. This process, called differential migration, results in a general segregation of sex and age classes. For instance, since females migrate the furthest south, in Michigan only 20% of the wintering population will be female on average, while in Alabama, 72% of the total will typically be female.

            The last passerines to migrate through our area are often snow buntings, and the first few of these birds are now being seen locally. Many snow buntings don’t even come this far south – their winter range extends as far north as some low arctic regions, and thus overlaps the southern limits of their breeding range. Those snow buntings desirous of the warmest winters only make it as far south as central Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Females appear to winter further south than males, demonstrating again while females may the wisest of the genders.

            Snow buntings are a circumpolar species, meaning they breed worldwide all around the farthest high arctic regions from Greenland to Finland to Russia to far northern Canada. They often migrate in small loose flocks of up to 30 birds, so look for them in groups particularly in open weedy and grassy fields, along roadsides, and along shorelines. When they settle down for the winter, they seem to prefer winter farm fields where manure has been spread since undigested seeds can often be found in manure. 

photo by Cherie Smith

Copper vs. Lead

I just read a piece written last fall by a deer hunter on why he uses copper bullets rather than lead. Here’s what he said: “As I hunted deer today, I sat within sight of the gut pile from the doe I killed two days ago. Much of it had been eaten already, but what remained was dined upon by two bald eagles, three ravens, two pileated woodpeckers, one hairy woodpecker, several blue jays, and numerous chickadees and nuthatches.

“Which is why I switched to copper bullets. Birds are highly susceptible to lead poisoning, and lead bullets fragment into tiny shards, some of which end up in the entrails we hunters leave behind after field dressing our deer. The tiniest amount of lead ingested by a bird can lead to a miserable slow death. 

“As a hunter, I do everything I can to make a swift, humane end to my prey’s life. Why then would I want to cause other animals to linger in pain? No. Just as it is my responsibility to avoid needless suffering for those animals I hunt, I believe I owe the same ethic to those that scavenge the remains. Copper bullets are every bit as effective on deer, rarely disintegrate in the animal, and if they do, the fragments are non-toxic to birds.”

Carrol Henderson, a hunter and an educator with the Department of Natural Resources in Minnesota, sums it up nicely, “A good bullet should not kill twice.” 

The copper vs lead debate has been going on for years, and I’m quite certain I’ll not end it in this column. However, if you work as a wildlife rehabber, like Mark Naniot at Wild Instincts near Rhinelander or Marge Gibson at Raptor Education group in Antigo, there’s nothing to debate. Marge notes, “Our costs to chelate birds from lead poisoning is massive, up to $2000 per eagle, and sadly we see many of them in the fall after hunting season begins.”

A study published in 2012 by University of Minnesota researchers investigated whether lead poisoning in bald eagles was connected to their consumption of lead-tainted deer remains. The study relied on data from 1,277 sick or injured bald eagles admitted to The Raptor Center between January 1996 and December 2009. Blood tests showed lethal levels of lead in 334 eagles. 

I’m highly supportive of deer hunting, so I hope no one thinks this is an anti-hunting essay. I wish deer hunters all good fortune this fall. I’d simply love to see all hunters use copper bullets.

September Temperatures

From NOAA: “With global records dating back to 1880, the September 2018 global temperature across the world's land and ocean surfaces was 0.78°C (1.40°F) above the 20th century average of 15.0°C (59.0°F) – tying with 2017 as the fourth highest September temperature in the 139-year record. The ten warmest September global land and ocean surface temperatures have occurred since 2003, with the last five years (2014–2018) comprising the five warmest Septembers on record. September 2015 is the record warmest September at +0.93°C (+1.67°F). September 2018 also marks the 42nd consecutive September and the 405th consecutive month with temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th century average (see https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201809).” 

On the other hand, October temperatures, at least in our region, have clearly been below normal.

Please remember the difference, however, between weather on any given day/week and climate data recorded over many years. A colder than normal day, or a warmer than normal day for that matter, is irrelevant in the larger scheme of things. 

I liken it to human health. You can be ill for a few days, but your overall health can be excellent. Conversely, you can feel fine for months, but you may be seriously declining in health due to a long-term disease. 

Sports analogies work well, too. I can go 0 for 4 batting today or 4 for 4, but the impact on my batting average over the entire year will be miniscule.

So, it will be interesting to see what temperatures were recorded in October around the globe as compared to our cold experience in northern Wisconsin. 

And wouldn’t you know, the long-term forecast for our area calls for above average temperatures in November. We’ll see if we end up with what seems like a reversal of normal conditions for these two months.

Celestial Events

            For viewing of planets in November, look after dusk for Mars in the south and Saturn low in the southwest. Before dawn, look for Venus very low in the southeast.

            November 3^rdbrings us just 10 hours of daylight as we continue to race toward winter solstice. Look for the peak south Taurid meteor shower before dawn on 11/5. The midpoint between autumn equinox and winter solstice occurs on 11/7, as does this month’s new moon.

Thought for the week

            Last Saturday, 10/20, provided us with our first accumulating snow. We often get a snow or two in October, which typically melts soon afterwards as this snow did. It’s always interesting, however, to hear the various responses to the snow, each of which vary widely from sheer panic or disgust to superlatives regarding the beauty of it all. Since our response to any natural event is always a personal choice, I’ve come to appreciate the following quote: “If you choose not to find joy in the snow, you will have less joy in your life but still the same amount of snow.”

A Northwoods Almanac for 10/12/18

CAFE Standards, Climate Change, and The Story We Need to Tell

In July, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), with the help of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Energy (DOE), issued a “Draft Environmental Impact Statement (Draft EIS) for The Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient Vehicles Rule for Model Year 2021–2026 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks.” This Draft EIS analyzed the direct, indirect, and cumulative environmental impacts of nine possible alternative fuel economy standards as mandated by The Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA). You may recall yet another acronym – CAFE – the Corporate Average Fuel Economy, and this is what is addressed in the report. CAFE was enacted by Congress after the 1973–74 Arab Oil Embargo to improve the average fuel economy of cars and light trucksand thus to help get us off our dependency on foreign oil. 

Mileage standards are a big deal because in 2016, the transportation sector accounted for 78 percent of total U.S. petroleum consumption. Thus, this 500+ page report goes to great lengths to describe the impacts each alternative would have on our lives.

To calculate the cumulative impacts of these alternatives, the report had no choice but to discuss how each would also impact climate change. And here’s where the far bigger story emerged, because this report was produced from a department within the Trump administration. The report goes into great detail on exactly what is known about climate change to date, and what the science says will happen by the year 2100.

Here is my best attempt at directly quoting the most salient points, but please read the report for yourself (https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/documents/ld_cafe_my2021-26_deis_0.pdf)because there is far more to it than I can fit into this column.

“Global climate change refers to long‐term (i.e., multi-decadal) trends in global average surface temperature, precipitation, ice cover, sea level, cloud cover, sea‐surface temperatures and currents, ocean pH, and other climatic conditions. Average surface temperatures have increased since the Industrial Revolution. From 1880 to 2016, Earth’s global average surface temperature rose by more than 0.9°C (1.6°F).” 

“Global mean sea level rose by about 1.0 to 1.7 millimeters per year from 1901 to 1990, a total of 11 to 14 centimeters (4 to 5 inches). After 1993, global mean sea level rose at a faster rate of about 3 millimeters (0.12 inches) per year. Consequently, global mean sea level has risen by about 7 centimeters (3 inches) since 1990, and by 16 to 21 centimeters (7 to 8 inches) since 1900.”

“Global atmospheric CO2 concentration has increased 44.6 percent from approximately 278 parts per million (ppm) in 1750 to approximately 403 ppm in 2016. Atmospheric concentrations of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) increased approximately 150 and 20 percent, respectively, over roughly the same period.” 

 “In recent decades, annual average precipitation increases have been observed across the Midwest, Great Plains, Northeast, and Alaska, while decreases have been observed in Hawaii, the Southeast and the Southwest. Nationally, there has been an average increase of 4 percent in annual precipitation from 1901 to 2016.”

“Rising temperatures across the United States have reduced total snowfall, lake ice, seasonal snow cover, sea ice, glaciers, and permafrost over the last few decades.”

“Climate change threatens forests by increasing tree mortality and forest ecosystem vulnerability due to fire, insect infestations, drought, disease outbreaks, and extreme weather events. Currently, tree mortality is increasing globally due in part to high temperatures and drought.”

 “Recent global satellite and ground-based data have identified phenologyshifts, including earlier spring events such as breeding, budding, flowering, and migration, which have been observed in hundreds of plant and animal species.”

“Isotopic- and inventory‐based studies have indicated that the rise in the global CO2 concentration is largely a result of the release of carbon that has been stored underground through the combustion of fossil fuels (coal, petroleum, and natural gas) used to produce electricity, heat buildings, and power motor vehicles and airplanes, among other uses.”

So, let me summarize – this report clearly states climate change is real, it’s ongoing, and it’s largely due to the combustion of fossil fuels. 

            More importantly, what about the future cumulative impacts of continuing burning fossil fuels the way we have been? Again, these are all direct quotes from the report.

“The cumulative impact on sea-level rise from the scenarios show sea-level rise in 2100 ranging from 70.22 centimeters (27.65 inches) under the No Action Alternative to 70.28 centimeters (27.67 inches) under Alternative 1.” (Note: the “No Action Alternative” is to keep the CAFE standards as they currently are. “Alternative 1” is the administration’s preferred alternative, which reduces these standards.)

“Under the No Action Alternative, assuming an emissions scenario that considers a moderate global effort to reduce GHG emissions, the cumulative global mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.216°C (2.189°F) by 2040, 1.810°C (3.260°F) by 2060, and 2.838°C (5.108°F) by 2100.”

            “The band of estimated CO2 concentrations as of 2100 is narrow, ranging from 687.3 ppm under the No Action Alternative to 687.9 ppm under Alternative 1 and Alternative 2.” (Note: currently we are at 410 ppm CO2, the highest ever recorded). 

            “The frequency and magnitude of the heaviest precipitation events is projected to increase everywhere in the United States. Floods that are closely tied to heavy precipitation events, such as flash floods and urban floods, as well as coastal floods related to sea-level rise and the resulting increase in storm surge height and inland impacts, are expected to increase.”

            “Dry spells are also projected to increase in length in most regions, especially in the southern and northwestern portions of the contiguous United States . . . analyses using higher emissions scenarios project with high confidence that the western United States will see chronic, long-duration hydrological droughts . . . A dramatic increase in the area burned by wildfire is projected in the contiguous United States through 2100, especially in the West. Tree species are predicted to shift their geographic distributions to track future climate change.”

            “Both globally and in the United States, sea-level rise, storms and storm surges, and changes in surface water and groundwater use patterns are expected to compromise the sustainability of coastal freshwater aquifers and wetlands.”

            “Rural livelihoods are less diverse than their urban counterparts are and are frequently dependent on natural resources that have unknown future availability such as agriculture, fishing, and forestry . . . Due to this lack of economic diversity, climate change will place disproportionate stresses on the stability of these rural communities . . . Tourism patterns could be affected by changes to the length and timing of seasons, temperature, precipitation, and severe weather events . . . Changes in the economic values of traditional recreation and tourism locations will affect rural communities because tourism makes up a significant portion of rural land use.”

“Climate change, particularly changes in temperatures, could change the range, abundance, and disease-carrying ability of disease vectors such as mosquitoes or ticks. This, in turn, could affect the prevalence and geographic distribution of diseases such as Rocky Mountain spotted fever, plague, tularemia, malaria, dengue fever, chikungunya virus, Lyme disease, West Nile virus, and Zika virus in human populations.” 

            “Rising temperatures are reducing ice volume and surface extent on land, lakes, and sea, with this loss of ice expected to continue. The Arctic Ocean is expected to become essentially ice free in summer before mid-century under future scenarios that assume continued growth in global emissions, although sea ice would still form in winter.” 

And, finally, what about irreversibility? “A large fraction of anthropogenic climate change resulting from CO2 emissions (e.g., global mean temperature increase, and a decrease in ocean pH) is irreversible on a multi-century to millennial time scale . . . Surface temperatures will remain approximately constant at elevated levels for many centuries after a complete cessation of net anthropogenic CO2 emissions.”

            There’s lots more, but let’s leave it at that – please remember this is a report released in July by the current administration, so it can’t be framed as a liberal “hoax.”

            I write about this now for two reasons. One, to try my best to help all of us, whatever our political beliefs, understand what is at stake, and to see that this is truly not a partisan issue. The climate cares not one iota what party you or I belong to, nor will our kids and grandkids care in 2050.

And two, to help us understand this is an issue for all humanity to come together around and to respond to with courage, friendships, and inventiveness against what appears to be overwhelming odds. To paraphrase one author, if climate change were an asteroid, alien invasion or Hitler type, we’d know exactly what to throw at it, which is everything we’ve got.

            The new climate story we must begin to tell is one of overcoming the odds rather than giving in and “adapting,” because there isn’t any real adapting to this future climate scenario. The new story we need to live has to be about our courage to fight for what we believe in, which can be as simple as believing in giving as good a life to our children as we’ve been blessed with. 

We need the power of alliances literally with everyone and every country – there’s no going this alone, and there’s no time for political rhetoric. We’ve got to be all-in with renewable energy – electric cars, solar panels, wind turbines, you name it, followed by an innovation explosion and a continuation of reduced energy use. 

I’m 66, so I’ll see some of what is coming, but I won’t begin to see the worst of it. Down the road I want my kids to see me in their mind’s eye as someone who fought for them in an epic task. Someone who lived with grit and not by giving in. We need the greatest story of the 21^stcentury to be how we solved climate change. 

If you can’t bring yourself to believe this, then stop now and read the above EIS. I learned a long time ago that who the messenger is matters. As the report again and again and again shows, the administration knows exactly what the climate score is. Some people don’t want to face it because they believe it’s political, or they don’t like the solutions, or they believe that we’re not capable of fighting it. But we have to fight it. I don’t care what your political party is. It’s time to step up, all of us, Republicans/Democrats/Independents, and step big.

A Northwoods Almanac for 9/28/18

A Northwoods Almanac for 9/28/18 – 10/11/18  

Loons Staging

On 9/20, a local birder observed 47 loons on Trout Lake. She wondered if it was a bit early for loons to be staging, but given that peak migration for adult loons in the Upper Great Lakes begins in mid-October, it seems like a reasonable time frame.

Common loons often utilize staging areas for rest and for foraging prior to their long-distance migrations. Like a 5-star hotel, the best staging areas have abundant prey, clear water, and offer safety. Trout Lake and Fence Lake represent two of our largest area lakes, and loons have been observed staging in large numbers on these two lakes over many years. 

Even though loons often stage in significant numbers prior to migration, loon adults migrate independent of their chicks and of each other, while young-of-the-year loons remain on their natal or adjacent lakes until near freeze-up.Usually by late November, however, most have arrived in their wintering areas.  

Based on extensive banding efforts as well as the implantation of satellite transmitters, researchers in New England and the upper Midwest now better understand loon migration routes. The loon populations of the Upper Great Lakes in Michigan and Wisconsin – “our” loons – migrate along the southern Great Lakes and then use an overland migration route to the Gulf of Mexico. They typically first use the Great Lakes as staging areas, and then often gather along the way on large reservoirs in Tennessee and Alabama. Some even choose to over-winter on those reservoirs.

A 25-year statewide dataset in New Hampshire shows that 17% of the fall loon population is comprised of young-of-the year, a percentage likely accurate for our area as well. 

The juvenile loons will remain on their wintering sites, finally returning in their third year to near where they were raised. 

Sightings: Snow Geese

            On 9/20, Bob Kovar photographed a small flock of snow geese mingling with a flock of Canada geese on one of the cranberry marshes in Manitowish Waters, an unusual sighting for our area these days. Snow geese were once a common sight locally during migration – the Powell Marsh master plan from 1979 describes “dramatic and large flocks of migrating geese” descending upon freshly burned areas in the early 1950s to graze on tender green shoots. It goes on to say “Powell Marsh is within a major flight lane for both Canada and snow geese.”

photo by Bob Kovar

            Well, times have changed for snow geese, which now migrate either well west of our area or simply wave as they pass over the state. “Wisconsin’s” birds are part of a Mississippi Flyway population that breeds in the eastern Arctic and winters along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Texas. Most snow geese now overfly Wisconsin on a direct flight to the Gulf from staging areas on James Bay. If they do stopover, the best areas to see them are at Crex Meadows Wildlife Management Area, Horicon Marsh, and Necedah National Wildlife Refuge.

I asked Bruce Bacon, retired DNR wildlife manager, why they now fly over our state rather than stopping, and he says it’s mostly because they migrate much later in the year, often not until late November. That’s because of a change in farming practices in Canada from fall plowing to minimum tillage, which leaves a lot of crop debris, and thus food, in the fields. The snow geese now can forage much later in the fall in Canada, and then when they finally have no choice but to migrate, most hightail it through our area to the Gulf.

Better Water Clarity Increases Property Values 

In a recently released study examining the relationship between water clarity and property values on 60 lakes in Oneida and Vilas Counties, the researchers found that home prices rise as water clarity improves. Using actual home sales data, they determined that within Vilas and Oneida Counties, an improvement of water clarity by 1 meter increases average home sale prices by 8 to 32 thousand dollars. 

The study was conducted by Dr. Thomas Kemp, Head of the Economics Department at UW Eau Claire and was funded by a grant from Lumberjack Resource Conservation & Development. See “The Impact of Water Clarity on Home Prices in Vilas and Oneida Counties, Wisconsin” which is available from the Vilas County Land & Water Conservation Department.

Migration Numbers

            Cornell Lab of Ornithology researchers researched data from 143 weather stations from 2013 to 2017 to provide the first large-scale counts of migratory bird activity across the United States. They estimate an average of 4 billion birds pass from Canada across the northern border of the U.S. in autumn, with 2.6 billion birds returning to Canada in the spring.

            Across our southern border, an average of 4.7 billion birds leave the U.S. for Mexico and points south each fall, with 3.5 billion birds coming back across the border in the spring.

Frost

Our first frost in Manitowish occurred on the morning of 9/22, although it was a light frost and didn’t harm our garden like a heavy frost would. From my records for Manitowish since the late 1980s, our shortest growing season was in 1993 when our last frost of spring was on June 21, and our first frost of autumn was on August 12, giving us a 52-day growing season.     This last decade has consistently given us frost-free days until well into September, and even into October. While this is good for gardens – we still are picking ripe tomatoes – it’s also a clear sign of a warming environment.

Red Pine Fire Data

            Over the years, I’ve led many hikes in the Frog Lake and Pines State Natural Area which is just across the Manitowish River from our house. One place I like to take folks is a point on Frog Lake where several old red pines have big fire scars at their base. I’ve often wondered about when the fire, or fires, occurred. This summer, I learned that Jed Meunier, an ecologist and research scientist with the WDNRstudying forest and fire ecology, took one partial section from a living tree on the point and by examining the rings, found the following dates:

Pith: 1805. So, the tree is now 213 years old.

Fire scars: 1833, 1846, 1855, 1864, 1877, 1895, 1909.

            These dates are remarkable in that European settlement in our area didn’t occur until the 1880s. So, how did these fires occur? Is it likely that there could have been a natural fire occurring nearly every decade for eight decades? 

I think not. The data suggest instead that the native Ojibwe were consistently setting ground fires in this area. Why? I suspect for berries, particularly blueberries. Just about every collectable berry species in our area only grows in full sun, and consistent fires would have kept both the canopy and the groundlayer open enough for all berry plants to dominate.

Fires also create a “fresh bite” – new plant growth that would be ideal for desirable wildlife species like deer and rabbits. 

Ojibwe elders have told us that they burned areas south of Lac du Flambeau so frequently that it was a “prairie.” Fire research like Meunier’s will help corroborate that, though nearly all of the big trees that could have given us that fire data via their growth rings are long gone. I’m eager to see additional data and analysis as he learns more.

fire scar on a white pine in the Frog Lake and Pines State Natural Area

Fall colors

            Mary, Callie, and I hiked along the Escarpment Trail in the Porcupine Mountains on 9/24 and saw very little color change. That’s normal, however, for fall colors along Lake Superior to be a week or more behind the rest of the Northwoods given the moderating effect of the world’s largest lake. 

Fall colors in Wisconsin’s Northwoods have been coming on slowly. As of 9/24, Boulder Junction reported 20% of peak, Eagle River 15% of peak on 9/19, Hayward 20% of peak on 9/24, and Manitowish Waters 20% of peak on 9/20. Not that long ago, most area chambers of commerce ran their fall “color-ramas” right around fall equinox – 9/22 – but that’s usually too early these days. The peak of fall color in New England and the time of leaf drop both occur about eight days later than they did 25 years ago, and I suspect that’s right for us, too.

Expect peak color this fall in the first week of October.

Celestial Events

            Planets in October: Look for Mars, in the SSE at dusk, Jupiter in the WSW at dusk, and Saturn in the SSW at sunset.The Draconid Meteor Shower peaks during the evening of 10/8, coinciding with the new moon, so viewing should be good. This is a modest meteor shower, averaging 10 per hour.

            On 10/11, look for Jupiter 4 degrees below the waxing crescent moon. 

Thought for the Week

“I'm so glad I live in a world where there are Octobers.”– L.M. Montgomery, author of Anne of Green Gables.