A Northwoods Almanac for 10/30 - 11/12/20   by John Bates

 

Winter Finch Forecast

Each year, the online post “Winter Finch Forecast” offers detailed forecasts for eight far northern-nesting “irruptive” finch species: pine grosbeaks, purple finches, red crossbills, white-winged crossbills, common redpolls, hoary redpolls, pine siskins, and evening grosbeaks, as well as three irruptive non-finch passerines: blue jays, red-breasted nuthatches, and bohemian waxwings.

These winter finches irrupt depending on the scarcity of cone and berry crops in the boreal forest in Canada. The sudden appearances of these birds were a mystery for most birders until Ron Pittaway, a researcher in Ontario, came along and sent a survey in the late summer to his contacts in the field - an average of 45 volunteers per forecast - asking them to rate in their area the seed crops of trees like pines, spruces, hemlocks, and mountain ashes as poor, fair, good, excellent, or bumper. From these reports, Pittaway determined the likelihood of the winter finches remaining on their breeding grounds or moving south to find more ample food resources. Thus the Winter Finch Forecast is as much an art as a science, but it has been remarkably accurate since its inception in 1999. 

For this year's Winter Finch Forecast, Tyler Hoar has taken over the reins, and he notes in general that cone crops “average poor to fair from Lake Superior eastward with eastern white pine being the exception.” He then breaks this down into specific trees and what their lack of seeds might mean for various bird species. So, for pine grosbeaks he reports that there’s a good but erratic crop of mountain ash berries across the boreal forest, so we may see small movements of pine grosbeaks moving south into the U.S..

As for other species, he says purple finches are already moving out of Canada and into the U.S., and he predicts most will migrate south out of Canada.

Common and hoary redpolls should have a moderate to good flight south out of the boreal forest due to a poor to fair crop of white and yellow birch seeds.

Pine siskins apparently are doing great in western Canada due to excellent spruce crops, but in the eastern boreal forest spruce crops aren’t so prolific, so he predicts a small number moving southward. (This prediction has already been eclipsed by large numbers of pine siskins coming south.)

            As for evening grosbeaks, they had an excellent breeding season in eastern Canada due to an outbreak of spruce budworm, a favorite insect food, so as the insects decline in number, we may see some of the best flights of evening grosbeaks in decades.  

            And for bohemian waxwings, one of the most beautiful of all songbirds, the prediction is that most will stay north because the mountain ash crop has been so good. He notes that they often come south to forage on buckthorn, which is not good news for the folks continually working to eradicate the invasive buckthorn. 

 

Pine Siskin Invasion

Birds do exercise free will, however, and don’t always listen to things like the finch forecast. So, if you've never seen a pine siskin, this should be your year, because in the past month, the birds have inundated backyard feeders across the country. It's apparently one of the biggest irruption years in recorded history for pine siskins.

They’re certainly not the flashiest of birds. Brown and heavily striped with a flash of bright yellow on their wings and tails, they’re rather demure and modest. I suspect if you feed birds, you’ll be seeing droves of these.

 

Sightings - Bell-ringing Woodpeckers, Robins, Fox Sparrows, Carolina Wren, Gray Jays

Sarah Krembs sent me a note regarding a downy woodpecker’s polite interest in perhaps having lunch with them: “Mum and I both heard it so I know I'm not crazy. We were sitting in the living room when the doorbell rang . . . Then there were a few knock, knock, knocks in rapid succession. I didn't see him, but it had to be the little downy who's been lately tapping little holes in our siding. I googled it, and apparently we aren't the only ones with doorbell-ringing woodpeckers. One was even caught on camera.”

In Manitowish, a bevy of robins have eaten every last crabapple off two of our crabapple trees, while leaving another adjacent tree completely untouched. This happens every year with this particular tree, and it’s a mystery to me. I planted these crabapple trees, all from the same batch I received from the DNR, over two decades ago, and yet the crabapples on this tree are often left uneaten until the spring, or eaten as a last resort late in the winter.  

Fox sparrows arrived beneath our feeders on 10/22, and a male red-bellied woodpecker appeared on 10/18, while several white-crowned sparrows showed up on 10/16 and spent a day or two with us and were then gone. We continue to have good numbers of pine siskins, dark-eyed juncos, fox sparrows, white-throated sparrows, blue jays, grackles, mourning doves, and red-winged blackbirds.

            

foxsparrow photo by Bev Engstrom

    

            Carne Andrews sent these observations from Echo Lake in Mercer: “This morning, 10/20, we observed a juvenile merlin harassing an adult pileated woodpecker. The merlin would perch about 4 to 6 feet above the foraging woodpecker then fly directly at the woodpecker flushing it to a new perch in a nearby pine tree. We observed this pattern four times across the lakeshore until they flew out of sight. 

“Also have you had any sightings of Carolina wren in our area? On Oct. 19, I noticed an unusual bird on our sunflower seed platform feeder and got very good looks at it for almost a minute. I’ve not seen a Carolina wren this far north but am familiar with them where I winter in Texas. It was a large chunky wren, brown backed, dark buffy breasted with a prominent bold white supercilium and downward curved bill. The long tail was cocked to almost straight at least an inch above the head.”

As Carne noted, Carolina wrens don’t nest this far north, and so are a rare sighting for us. However, as a function of climate change, Carolina wrens have been moving further north over many decades, and now nest in southern Wisconsin, so perhaps this was a northern explorer, a Shackleton among birds. 

Bob Kovar had a hermit thrush eating from his suet feeder in Manitowish Waters on 10/22. Hermit thrushes are seed and insect eaters, not suet, so this is an anomaly.

hermit thrush photo by Bob Kovar

Denise Fauntleroy sent me a photo of gray jays that are coming to her feeders in Watersmeet, MI. This is the third year in a row that the gray jays have frequented her feeders, and in the spring, they bring their chicks to feed as well. Of course this is because, as Denise wrote me: “They love white bread soaked in bacon grease, plain bread, peanut butter, and any meat scraps (cut up very small). They often hang on the suet feeders too!” Well, no wonder she has gray jays - she’s running a veritable restaurant! These gray jays probably need to be checked for heart disease. 

gray jay photo by Denixe Fauntlerory

Ah, I’m just teasing Denise. More power to her for caring so much for them. Gray jays are a disappearing act these days in northern Wisconsin, and anyone who has them coming to their feeders is very lucky indeed.

Keith Pilger sent me a photo of a black chipmunk that has been coming to his son’s feeder in Stevens Point. We see black squirrels regularly, but I don’t know that I’ve ever seen, or heard of, a black chipmunk.

Mitch Myers reported a flock of 30 evening grosbeaks that came to his feeders in Mercer on 10/18. Evening grosbeaks have been a very uncommon sighting over the last two decades, but this could be a breakthrough year.

Dan Carney in Hazelhurst sent me a message saying he had a flock of 25 or more eastern bluebirds visiting his feeders in late September and into the first week of October. Bluebirds winter as far north as Indiana and Illinois, so they often stay north longer.

Joan Galloway had a male cardinal appear under her feeders on 10/17, only the second one she’s ever seen here in the Northwoods.

Kent Dahlgren sent me the following note and a photo on 10/13: “My wife Maureen and I went for a walk in Pipke Park in Presque Isle, and there were nine swans feeding, preening and actually sleeping in the ponds. It looks like they put their head under their wing to sleep. It was windy and when the swans started sleeping, the wind would start to push them across the pond.”  

 

A Who’s Who of Juncos

Juncos are dominant at our feeders right now, but they often appear quite different from one another. In fact, dark-eyed juncos come in 15 described races, of which six are easily recognizable in the field, while five used to be considered separate species until the 1980s. Look at your field guide to see these differences, but in general there are two widespread forms of the dark-eyed junco: the “slate-colored” junco of the eastern United States and most of Canada,  which is smooth gray above and is the form we commonly see here in northern Wisconsin; and the “Oregon” junco, found across much of the western U.S., which has a dark hood, warm brown back and rufous flanks. 

The quickest identifier for slate-colored juncos at a distance is the flash of their white outer tail feathers when the bird takes flight, but up close, look for a gray or blackish hood, and a dark back that contrasts with its whitish breast and belly. 

dark-eyed junco - slate-colored - photo by Bev Engstrom

The various forms of dark-eyed juncos differ in plumage and bill color, migratory behavior, songs, and body size, which has made for a messy taxonomic history. On occasion, we’ve seen an Oregon version at our feeders, and we certainly see a great deal of variation in the darkness of hood and back feathers on the slate-colored juncos, but they’re still all the “same” bird, at least as of the current science.

            All juncos are ground feeders, so those breeding in northern parts of their range have no choice but to migrate. East of the Mississippi River, junco females tend to migrate farther south than males, with adult females going farther than hatching-year birds, a process referred to as differential migration. This results in partial segregation of sex and age classes. So, for instance, in Michigan, 20% of wintering juncos are females, while 72% are females in Alabama. The genders and ages also vary as to when they migrate in the fall - females move southward before males, and adult females move south before young females. 

Enjoy them while you can!

            

August 10 Derecho The Most Costly Thunderstorm Ever

The powerful derecho that swept through the Midwest on August 10 is officially the most costly thunderstorm event in recorded U.S. history, easily surmounting the top five list of most expensive weather events in the U.S. Only Hurricane Laura with a price tag of $14 billion caused more financial ruin.

According to figures released by NOAA, the sustained line of thunderstorms traveled 770 miles from South Dakota through Ohio in 14 hours, flattening millions of acres of corn and soybean crops, as well as numerous homes, businesses and vehicles, especially in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. An estimated 90% of structures in Cedar Rapids were damaged by the storm, and more than 1,000 homes were destroyed. All told, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that 850,000 crop acres were lost - 50% more than originally estimated. 

 

Celestial Events

            Full moon, a blue moon, occurs on 10/31. This is the year’s smallest and most distant full moon, 30% dimmer than our brightest moon of the year in April.

            For planet watching in November, after dusk look for Mars bright in the southeast, Jupiter low in the south-southwest, and Saturn also low in the south-southwest. Before dawn, look for brilliant Venus very low in the east.

            The peak South Taurid meteor shower occurs before dawn on 11/5 - look for about 10 meteors per hour. 11/7 marks the midpoint between autumn equinox and winter solstice. The peak North Taurid meteor shower takes place before dawn on 11/11, again a modest meteor shower of perhaps 10 per hour.

 

Thoughts for the Week

It’s not what you look at that matters, it’s what you see. - Henry David Thoreau

Raise your words, not voice. It is rain that grows flowers, not thunder. - Jalaluddin Rumi 

 

Please share your outdoor sightings and thoughts: e-mail me at manitowish@centurytel.net, call 715-476-2828, snail-mail at 4245N State Highway 47, Mercer, WI, or see my blog at www.manitowishriver.blogspot.com.