A Northwoods Almanac for 11/21 – 12/4/2025
Winter Finch Forecast
According to the “Finch Forecast” from Ontario’s Finch Research Network, it looks to be a good flight year this winter for many northern bird species coming down from Canada. In fact, this has the potential of being the biggest flight year since 2020-2021 because of the very poor seed crops in the boreal forest from central Quebec westward to Manitoba.
Hunger has a way of making things happen. Seeds from significant food source species such as white spruce, tamarack and white birch are reportedly totally absent over large areas, while regularly dependent food sources like black spruce and alders are below average within these same areas.
So, what does this mean for individual species? Here you go:
Pine grosbeaks: There should be a small to moderate flight this winter south into the border states. The crop of mountain ash appears below average to poor from Lake Superior across the boreal forest into eastern Quebec, and pine grosbeaks rely heavily on mountain ash.
Purple finches: Most will migrate south out of Eastern Canada this winter with some making it to the deep southern States.
Redpoll: Expect a strong flight south out of the boreal forest east of Lake Superior southward into the lower great lakes. BTW, in 2024, common redpoll, hoary redpoll and the lesser redpoll in Europe were all lumped into the same species, now simply called “redpoll.” I never was sure when I thought I was seeing a hoary redpoll, so this is good news for those of us who were ID challenged.
| photo by Jill Wilm |
Red and white-winged crossbills: There should be modest numbers dropping into the upper Great Lakes states
Pine siskins: Areas affected by spruce budworm infestations provided widespread and bountiful food for siskins during the breeding season, but these same areas also have a very poor white spruce and white birch cone crop for the winter. So, there should be a moderate to possibly strong flight of siskins southward, possibly as far south as the mid-Atlantic states. (We saw our first pine siskins in Manitowish on 11/9).
Evening grosbeaks: Like the other spruce budworm-loving finches, evening grosbeaks were widespread in these northern areas, rearing families on this abundant food source. But winter food sources like cherry species, ash, and mountain ash, had poor crops over widespread areas. So, there should be a moderate flight of evening grosbeaks southward this fall. (We saw our first evening grosbeaks in Manitowish on 11/6).
Bohemian waxwings: Given the poor native mountain ash crop east of Lake Superior, bohemians should be moving into areas of the lower Great Lakes. But local areas that have experienced drought conditions during the late summer, and thus have had scattered berry crop failures, may force bohemian waxwings to roam even further south.
Great Acorn Year – The Good and the Bad
In an earlier column this fall, I noted the exceptional acorn numbers underfoot, a density so great that Mary said it was like walking on ball bearings. Of course, all those acorns feed a huge number of animals, including an array of bird species like blue jays, common grackles, all our woodpeckers, wild turkeys, wood ducks and mallards who swallow them whole, and even chickadees and nuthatches who can consume acorns after they have been cracked open by larger birds.
Most mammals consume them too, from chipmunks, mice and squirrels to deer, raccoons and black bears. White-tailed deer are one of the top acorn consumers, with acorns, white oak acorns in particular, comprising up to 75 percent of their late fall and early winter diet – up to 300 acorns per day. In a big mast year (every two to five years), deer weigh more going into the winter and are more likely to produce twin fawns.
That’s the good news – it’s a Thanksgiving feast for many wildlife species.
The bad news is how many mice, white-footed mice in particular, gorge on the acorns, because the higher the population of mice, the higher future incidence of Lyme disease.
It works this way. The life-cycle of a tick is generally 2 to 3 years, beginning after a larva hatches from an egg. The larva soon develops into a nymph and later an egg-laying adult. Along the way, the larva feeds on the blood of small rodents and birds, which is where it can pick up the bacterium that causes Lyme disease. After feeding, it develops into a nymph and goes in search of another blood meal, perhaps another rodent or maybe something larger like a deer or a human. In its nymphal or adult stage, the tick can then transmit Lyme disease to humans.
It’s pretty straightforward then – more acorns leads to more rodents which leads to more nymphs carrying Lyme disease.
The process, however, takes a couple of years. First, the oak trees flood the market with acorns and rodent populations are well fed. The following year, the numbers of reproducing mice and chipmunks goes sky high, and the year after that, nymphal tick populations boom with many infected with Lyme-disease.
One researcher (Richard Ostfeld from the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies) feels the relationship is so direct that he can predict the incidence of Lyme disease based on when a mast year occurs. In summers when there is an abundance of 2-year-old oak seedlings in the surrounding forests, he says we should expect the infection rate of Lyme disease to be high.
So, we’ll see two years from now if this plays out. And let’s hope he’s wrong.
Renewable Energy – A Better Business Model Than Fossil Fuels
I just saw this report that came out in July summarizing “Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2024.” The report confirms that renewables maintained their price advantage over fossil fuels, with cost declines driven by technological innovation, competitive supply chains, and economies of scale.
“In 2024, solar photovoltaics (PV) were, on average, 41% cheaper than the lowest-cost fossil fuel alternatives, while onshore wind projects were 53% cheaper. Onshore wind remained the most affordable source of new renewable electricity at USD 0.034/kWh, followed by solar PV at USD 0.043/kWh.
“The addition of 582 gigawatts of renewable capacity in 2024 led to significant cost savings, avoiding fossil fuel use valued at about USD 57 billion. Notably, 91% of new renewable power projects commissioned last year were more cost-effective than any new fossil fuel alternatives.
“Renewables are not only cost-competitive vis-a-vis fossil fuels but are advantageous by limiting dependence on international fuel markets and improving energy security. The business case for renewables is now stronger than ever.”
Before anyone screams that this is nonsense – that we still need fossil fuels – well, you’re right. We still need fossil fuels for many applications! So, no one is advocating the complete end of fossil fuels. Instead, achieving net zero CO2 emissions is the goal. Please remember that net zero does NOT mean we don’t emit any more carbon – that’s impossible. It means instead that we figure out how to remove carbon from the atmosphere at the same rate we are emitting it, and that IS possible. A large part of achieving that goal is switching to renewables wherever and whenever possible.
A transition away from fossil fuels to renewable energy is both inevitable and utterly essential. The solutions exist. And, importantly economically, it’s a good business decision. The experts tell us we don’t need any more technological innovations, though more efficiencies are obviously welcome. What we do need is to implement what we already know how to do.
Not sure if you believe this? See the full report: https://www.irena.org/Publications/2025/Jun/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-in-2024
Deer Herd Population Trends – The Numbers
The gun deer season will soon be upon us with the usual controversies and the endlessly repeated cries for more deer. For the record, here is a data analysis (the best estimates) of deer herd population trends in Wisconsin:
Herd Size 1960 400,000
Herd Size 1970 500,000
Herd Size 1980 550,000
Herd Size 1990 900,000
Herd Size 2000 1,400,000
Herd Size 2024 1,650,000
Herd Size 2025 1,825,000
Wisconsin achieved its highest recorded population and a national record harvest in 2000, with over 618,000 deer harvested that year.
After the 2000 peak, the population experienced some short-term declines due to severe winters and/or intensive antlerless harvests (e.g., in 2004, 2006, 2007), which were management strategies to control herd size.
In the 2020s, the population rebounded and remains at very high levels. In 2023, the post-hunt population was estimated at 1,628,500. The 2025 estimate is even higher, with the total statewide population estimated at 1.825 million, the highest in recent history.
For a deeper dive into Wisconsin’s deer metrics, see the WDNR’s excellent website: https://dnr.wisconsin.gov/topic/WildlifeHabitat/deermetrics.html
Celestial Events
Ice-up has been occurring on shallow marshes and ponds, with lakes yet to come. Average ice-up date for 39-acre Foster Lake in Hazelhurst (49 years of records from Woody Hagge) is 11/27.
We’re down to 9 hours of sunlight by 11/28.
The average high temperature drops to 32° on 11/28, the first time since March 3. Minocqua averages 97 days with high temperatures at or below freezing.
December’s full moon occurs on 12/4, the “Little Spirit” moon/”Popping Trees” moon/“Long Night” moon.
Thanksgiving
I recently spent an hour on the phone with two of my nephews trying to describe the complexities of our family lineage – so many names from so many places over so much time! Even with the various family trees charted out, it’s still a spider web of tangled connections that leaves me with two overwhelming emotions – amazement and gratitude.
Amazement that, first off, so many people made it to adulthood in centuries when that was absolutely not a given. And then that they somehow found one another, raised the next set of children, who survived and found one another, over and over and over, until there’s me sitting here typing these words.
And gratitude, recognizing the miracle that I’m here, in this place, with this family, within this community, and not in so many other places of immense strife. So much thankfulness for the luck of the draw.
Then the additional gratitude for all the beings in the natural world, from the plants that feed us and shelter us and create the air that we breathe, to the rain, the soil, the stars. Good Lord, it’s so much. If we stop to think of each of those lives that make it possible for us to be here, the miracle of each one, perhaps that’s what the thanks in Thanksgiving should largely be about.
The giving? That’s up to each of us – how to enact our gratitude in ways that honor the gift of life that we have been given.
“Not what we say about our blessings, but how we use them, is the true measure of our Thanksgiving.” – W.T. Purkiser
Thought for the Week
“The wind that makes music in November corn is in a hurry. The stalks hum, loose husks whisk skyward in half-playful swirls, and the wind hurries on.” – Aldo Leopold
Please share your outdoor sightings and thoughts: e-mail me at johnbates2828@gmail.com, call 715-476-2828, snail-mail at 4245N State Highway 47, Mercer, WI, or see my blog at www.manitowishriver.blogspot.com